Thursday, December 10, 2009

When to take profits

When an important piece of news like the US nonfarm payrolls comes in much better than expected, you would expect the market to rally strongly. The S&P 500 did rally strongly last Friday just after the open. The index made a new high at 1119 but something unusual occurred later in the session, see chart.

Note the sharp reversal after 3pm, the good news turned bearish. After making a new high prices dropped 2% by 7.30pm. This behaviour was warning of a potential trend reversal. We saw a similar example in September when the FOMC rate decision was bullish yet the market reversed.

After a long advance, good news is often used by investment managers to unload shares. If you have a long position in the S&P 500 it is always a good idea to close it on good news. On the chart, the early reversal on Friday 4 December was a bearish development. Holders of a long position in the S&P 500 who did not close it on the day had an opportunity to close it on Monday 7 December when prices bounced back.


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